Explanation
It's interesting to contemplate what animals would eventually rise to control the Earth is humans were to somehow disappear. Actually, it'd be pretty fun to bet on if you had a six pack of beer and a few eons with nothing to do. To that end, here are the odds of any current species (or group of species) on Earth eventually developing the intelligence and means to control the Earth's resources as humans do now.
Chimpanzee 5:1 odds
Chimpanzees share the closest common ancestor with humans of any other animal, and it stands to reason that they have the shortest genetic distance to travel to catch up with humans in terms of intelligence. Chimps already have demonstrated the ability to engage in cognition (figuring out problems in their head instead of through trial and error), can learn sign language, and appear to be aware of themselves (will try to wipe away a mark on their own face if they see themselves in a mirror). Furthermore, their opposable thumbs give them a big advantage over dolphins in the way of manipulating tools. This is pretty important in order to control resources; being able to harvest chemical energy, for example, would be difficult without hands to manipulate tools.
Dolphin 8:1
By some measurements, dolphins may be more intelligent than we are right now. Some scientists have begun gaging intelligence by the number of folds in the brain's frontal lobe, and dolphins have far more than we do. They clearly have a language and more computational brain power for language than we do: what might sound like several seconds of whistling could convey more data than hours of human conversation. They also appear to make art (blowing bubbles into vortexes of water), and thus appear to have creative thought. However, as stated in the chimpanzee section, dolphins are severely handicapped by not having appendages with which to easily manipulate tools. This casts doubt over their ability to control resources. Furthermore, living in an aquatic environment makes developing fire and electricity much more difficult or unlikely than on land.
Octopus 18:1
According to some theories, cephalopods were leading the race to higher intelligence when the took an evolutionary wrong turn: octopus and squid blood uses copper instead of iron to convey oxygen. The hemocyanin in their blood is less efficient than the hemoglobin in our own, and therefore cephalopods blood probably carries too little oxygen to support a big brain. If octopuses could get back n the right track or figure out some way around this problem, they could be well on their way towards supremacy. They are already extremely adept at problem solving and manipulating instruments with their tentacles. Furthermore, some octopuses have evolved to live in progressively shallower water, perhaps presaging a move up onto land.
Raven 40:1
Ravens are thought to be the most intelligent species of bird. Like chimpanzees, ravens have show signs of cognition: a raven that encounters a piece of meat hanging from a string will trap the string with one foot and slowly pull the meat up with the other. Ravens also use sticks as tools for grub-hunting. However, flight requires maximum weight efficiency (birds have only one ovary and kidney, for example). This makes a high brain mass to body mass ratio unlikely.
Termites 150:1
I've heard a scientist suggest that one of the massive colonies of millions of termites in Africa might be as intelligent as a 4-year-old. Could be: they've already invented agriculture through fungus farms, language through chemical messages, sophisticated air conditioning, architecture, and division of labor. It's not that much of a stretch to imagine an ant colony learning to cultivate and use fire, a short step away from mastery of chemical energy. However, one wonders about the inherent limits of the hive consciousness...
Frogs 20,000:1
Though they have appendages with digits capable of grasping, frogs and most other amphibeans have little computational brain power.
Snakes 45,000:1
The disadvantage of having no appendages whatsoever makes snakes a dark horse candidate in this race.
Cockroaches 150,000:1
Not a good chance, and thank God for that (even if I'll never be around to see it).
Update: Maybe I should adjust this one to be a little more probable. In the case of a nuclear holocaust, cockroaches would have very little standing in their way.
Betting on larger groups
Generic primate 3:1
With orangutans, gorillas, and bonobos included, this group merits a healthy third of the probability of coming out on top.
Generic mammal 7:3
Adding dolphins, apes, cats, dogs, and rodents together, there's almost a 50% chance you've got a winner.
Generic bird 35:1
In addition to the raven's brain we include the tool-mastery of finches, and the possibility that a flightless bird will eschew its weight efficiency for a more intelligent brain. Furthermore, it is possible that the sudden boom in human intelligence a few hundred thousand years ago was the result of sexual selection--suddenly it was cool to date nerds. Birds are especially prone to sexual selection as a method of picking mates, so it's possible that they could get going down the same road that humans did.
Generic invertebrate 15:1
For a big-paying yet plausible bet, put your money on the invertebrates and hope the cephalopods develop hemoglobin or the hive consciousnesses keep getting smarter.
No successor 5:1
It took a few billion years of life to get humanity up and running. The sun's still got a few billion years of juice remaining, so the odds that another species won't rise to dominance are slim, but certainly a possibility.
Please place your bets by the next milennia. No wagers will be accepted any later.
Showing posts with label evolution. Show all posts
Showing posts with label evolution. Show all posts
Friday, August 3, 2007
Thursday, May 3, 2007
Darwin lives
Introduction
In most cases, evolution happens far to slowly to be observed in a single lifetime (the exception being single-cellular organisms, which can evolve a resistance to an antibiotic during an 8th period AP Biology class). However, there will likely be a few cases of evolution that will be visible over the next few hundred years. The explosive force of human society has catalyzed some evolutionary changes already: sea otters used to spend time on shore, but now spend their entire lives in the ocean, for example. Anatomical evolution generally happens over spans of time far too big to be observed, but some behavioral change occurs remarkably quickly. So, here are a few examples of evolution that I predict we will see within the millenium.
1. Squirrels: better understanding of roads
Squirrels have it hard-wired into their brain that at the first sign of trouble, the optimal course of action is to run to the nearest tree and climb it. For centuries, this strategy worked out pretty well for them, but recently has become a bit of a problem. For example, if the nearest tree happens to be on the far side of the road that you have just run 3/4 of the way across, you have a much better chance of getting squished. Since you see so many squirrels dead on the road, this is an evolutionary moment waiting to happen. Eventually, some squirrells will happen to have an instinctual preference towards fleeing to the nearest side of the road, and as there comrades are weeded out by speeding semis, these neo-squirrels will come to command a progressively larger chunk of squirrel-dom. Just watch: there will be far fewer squirrel-automobile fatalities is fifty years.
2. Birds/butterflies: greater role in pollination
As it stands, honeybees are responsible for pollinating something like 90% of the America's crops. This is an artificial monoply, created by the rie of farming. Bees were included in that process as the most easily-controllable pollinator out there. However, an artificially created one-species pollination system is unstable, and bees are bound to be challenged in their dominance of different plant species by various other pollinators. With bee colonies around the country collapsing, I bet you'll begin to see the proliferation bird and other insect species that are able to adapt to pollinate these now-unmated flowers.
3. Humans: long-term decision making
We've got short term decision making down to an art: if you're hungry, you eat. If something is thrown at you, you duck. In the moment, we are pretty good at recognizing dangers and needs. In the long term we're reasonably good, but you still see a whole lot more people fail to get around to paying off their mortgage than fail to duck when a bottle is thrown at them. I expect that the percentage of these poor long-term decision makers that are able to reproduce is lower than those who are able to get it together enough to find a house, a job, and otherwise negotiate the long-term challenges of life.
Some other thoughts random on human evolution:
• Taste buds: Eating sweet things is a biologically good decision in the wild, but proves to be a poor idea in modern society. Therefore, our brain's preference for sweet, energy-filled food is a relic of a caveman's life. Perhaps adapted taste buds will re-correct our diets and cut back on obesity in our world.
• Susceptibility to religious extremism: The early 20th century fear that Catholics would breed their way to world domination did not pan out, but the fact remains that the people that contribute the most members to the next generation very often belong to extreme religious sects. This would seem to suggest that fanaticism will be a cultivated phenotype in the future.
• Knees & ankles: If only we had invented agriculture just a few thousand years after after we began walking on two legs, maybe we wouldn't have so many knee and ankle injuries.
In most cases, evolution happens far to slowly to be observed in a single lifetime (the exception being single-cellular organisms, which can evolve a resistance to an antibiotic during an 8th period AP Biology class). However, there will likely be a few cases of evolution that will be visible over the next few hundred years. The explosive force of human society has catalyzed some evolutionary changes already: sea otters used to spend time on shore, but now spend their entire lives in the ocean, for example. Anatomical evolution generally happens over spans of time far too big to be observed, but some behavioral change occurs remarkably quickly. So, here are a few examples of evolution that I predict we will see within the millenium.
1. Squirrels: better understanding of roads
Squirrels have it hard-wired into their brain that at the first sign of trouble, the optimal course of action is to run to the nearest tree and climb it. For centuries, this strategy worked out pretty well for them, but recently has become a bit of a problem. For example, if the nearest tree happens to be on the far side of the road that you have just run 3/4 of the way across, you have a much better chance of getting squished. Since you see so many squirrels dead on the road, this is an evolutionary moment waiting to happen. Eventually, some squirrells will happen to have an instinctual preference towards fleeing to the nearest side of the road, and as there comrades are weeded out by speeding semis, these neo-squirrels will come to command a progressively larger chunk of squirrel-dom. Just watch: there will be far fewer squirrel-automobile fatalities is fifty years.
2. Birds/butterflies: greater role in pollination
As it stands, honeybees are responsible for pollinating something like 90% of the America's crops. This is an artificial monoply, created by the rie of farming. Bees were included in that process as the most easily-controllable pollinator out there. However, an artificially created one-species pollination system is unstable, and bees are bound to be challenged in their dominance of different plant species by various other pollinators. With bee colonies around the country collapsing, I bet you'll begin to see the proliferation bird and other insect species that are able to adapt to pollinate these now-unmated flowers.
3. Humans: long-term decision making
We've got short term decision making down to an art: if you're hungry, you eat. If something is thrown at you, you duck. In the moment, we are pretty good at recognizing dangers and needs. In the long term we're reasonably good, but you still see a whole lot more people fail to get around to paying off their mortgage than fail to duck when a bottle is thrown at them. I expect that the percentage of these poor long-term decision makers that are able to reproduce is lower than those who are able to get it together enough to find a house, a job, and otherwise negotiate the long-term challenges of life.
Some other thoughts random on human evolution:
• Taste buds: Eating sweet things is a biologically good decision in the wild, but proves to be a poor idea in modern society. Therefore, our brain's preference for sweet, energy-filled food is a relic of a caveman's life. Perhaps adapted taste buds will re-correct our diets and cut back on obesity in our world.
• Susceptibility to religious extremism: The early 20th century fear that Catholics would breed their way to world domination did not pan out, but the fact remains that the people that contribute the most members to the next generation very often belong to extreme religious sects. This would seem to suggest that fanaticism will be a cultivated phenotype in the future.
• Knees & ankles: If only we had invented agriculture just a few thousand years after after we began walking on two legs, maybe we wouldn't have so many knee and ankle injuries.
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