Don't trust Iowa

Introduction
You've probably heard some talk recently about the shuffling of state primary dates. While this is a hot topic, I'd like to make a short plea: can we please remove the yoke of responsibility from Iowa's shoulders?

The Iowa Caucus: Background
As you may know, because of its early primary, Iowa is considered to be a major player in choosing a nominating a presidential candidate. In 2000, for example, Iowans launched George Bush to a lead that John McCain would never overcome. In 2004, they picked John Kerry out of a field of 9 candidates, propelling him to the the Democratic candidacy.

The Data
Before I get into my argument, let's look at the data for some background. Even though Iowa became famous for catapulting Cater to the presidency in 1976 (even though he lost to "Uncommitted" 37% to 28% ) I'm going to begin with 1980 caucus.

Year__________Republican winner_____________________Democratic winner
1980_________George H. W. Bush*____________________Jimmy Carter
1984_________Reagan, unopposed____________________Walter Mondale
1988_________Bob Dole*_____________________________Dick Gephart*
1992_________George H. W. Bush, unopposed___________Tom Harkin*
1996_________Bob Dole______________________________Bill Clinton (unopposed)
2000_________George W. Bush________________________Al Gore
2004_________George W. Bush, unopposed______________John Kerry

* Did not win nomination


Why I think Iowa's done a bad job
So why am I down on Iowa? Let's look at its track record...

On the Republican side:
Iowa has had four chances to pick a candidate from a field (as opposed to an unopposed candidate). Twice their support failed to win the candidate the nomination (1980, 1988). Of their two picks that made it through, only one was elected president, George W. Bush, who at the moment has an approval rating well below 40% in Iowa. The numbers: Iowa Republicans have converted 1 of 4 chances to pick a president, and that choice turned out to be one they did not like once he became president.

On Democratic side:
Iowa has had six chances to pick a candidate from the field. While the Democrats have much more success choosing the eventual nominee (four out of six: 1980, 1984, 2000, 2004), their candidates have done miserably in general elections. Absolutely zero have won a general election (with the arguable exception of 2000). In fact, the only Democrat to win the presidency over this span occured in one of the few years in which the Democratic nomination went to someone Iowa did not choose!

Looking to the general election, Iowa has failed to choose a candidate to unseat an incumbent five out of five chances, and succeeded in picking a winner in an open election only once out of three chances (that one being the president that they've liked the least in the last 27 years). Neither Reagan, nor George H. W. Bush, nor Clinton ever won a contested caucus in Iowa.

One final, more specific example: in the 2004 election, the Iowa Democrats seemed to be specifically looking for a candidate that would displace George Bush. Basically, they were voting for electability. Their choice, John Kerry, turned out to be pretty unelectable.


My preemptive Mea Culpa
Before the angry e-mails start rolling in from my Iowan (is that the right adjective?) friends, here's a defense of Iowa: Iowa's notoriety as the picker of presidents create a maelstrom of media attention and advertising. Iowans are innundated by this flood of propaganda, as quite understandably have a hard time seeing the candidates as the rest of the nation sees them. Furthermore, the other party generally waits to see who the front runner will be in Iowa before starting the opposition research and attack ads.