Wednesday, June 20, 2007

Running off with the nomination

Introduction
If ever there was an argument for run-off balloting, this presidential primary season is it. Both parties find themselves in the awkward position of of having a frontrunner who is viewed negatively by a large portion of the party. Keep reading for a brief explanation of the problem and potential solution.

Republican Primary
Former mayor Rudy Giulliani currently leads the Republican field with a slim majority of the vote. Giulliani appears to have a percentage of voters loyal to him within his party, but much of the rest of conservative America appears reluctant to support a pro-life, pro-gay rights candidate. Despite the fact that many of his party, perhaps even most, would list him at the bottom of their preferred candidates, Giulliani would likely be the Republican nominee if the vote were held today.

Democratic Primary
The Democrats face a similar predicament. Hillary Clinton has a significant lead over her rivals in the polls. However, in a one-on-one election, she would lose to many of her competitors. She is viewed negatively by many in her party, but has a large enough chunk of supporters to lend her the lead. (Aside: Hillary is by far the most-hated Democratic candidate among Republicans--most would prefer any other Democrat to her. And yet, she is the most conservative in the Democratic field by far. Can anyone explain this to me?)

Solution: Run-off voting
Run-off voting solves this stratgy by allowing voters to list the candidates from favorite to least-favorite rather than simply checking their first choice. This way, one candidate cannot win by splitting the vote, for example if Hillary should win the nomination when anti-Hillary voters were unable to choose decisively between Al Gore and Barack Obama. Pay attention to this, I could easily see it playing a big part in this election.


Note
One way the primary system has countered vote-splitting in the past is by the winnowing of the field--candidates drop out as it becomes increasingly clear they will not win. This will be less the case this year, as the primary schedule has been rewritten so that the individual primaries are less spread out, not allowing time for candidates to drop out.

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