Handicapping Evolution

Explanation
It's interesting to contemplate what animals would eventually rise to control the Earth is humans were to somehow disappear. Actually, it'd be pretty fun to bet on if you had a six pack of beer and a few eons with nothing to do. To that end, here are the odds of any current species (or group of species) on Earth eventually developing the intelligence and means to control the Earth's resources as humans do now.

Chimpanzee 5:1 odds
Chimpanzees share the closest common ancestor with humans of any other animal, and it stands to reason that they have the shortest genetic distance to travel to catch up with humans in terms of intelligence. Chimps already have demonstrated the ability to engage in cognition (figuring out problems in their head instead of through trial and error), can learn sign language, and appear to be aware of themselves (will try to wipe away a mark on their own face if they see themselves in a mirror). Furthermore, their opposable thumbs give them a big advantage over dolphins in the way of manipulating tools. This is pretty important in order to control resources; being able to harvest chemical energy, for example, would be difficult without hands to manipulate tools.

Dolphin 8:1
By some measurements, dolphins may be more intelligent than we are right now. Some scientists have begun gaging intelligence by the number of folds in the brain's frontal lobe, and dolphins have far more than we do. They clearly have a language and more computational brain power for language than we do: what might sound like several seconds of whistling could convey more data than hours of human conversation. They also appear to make art (blowing bubbles into vortexes of water), and thus appear to have creative thought. However, as stated in the chimpanzee section, dolphins are severely handicapped by not having appendages with which to easily manipulate tools. This casts doubt over their ability to control resources. Furthermore, living in an aquatic environment makes developing fire and electricity much more difficult or unlikely than on land.

Octopus 18:1
According to some theories, cephalopods were leading the race to higher intelligence when the took an evolutionary wrong turn: octopus and squid blood uses copper instead of iron to convey oxygen. The hemocyanin in their blood is less efficient than the hemoglobin in our own, and therefore cephalopods blood probably carries too little oxygen to support a big brain. If octopuses could get back n the right track or figure out some way around this problem, they could be well on their way towards supremacy. They are already extremely adept at problem solving and manipulating instruments with their tentacles. Furthermore, some octopuses have evolved to live in progressively shallower water, perhaps presaging a move up onto land.

Raven 40:1
Ravens are thought to be the most intelligent species of bird. Like chimpanzees, ravens have show signs of cognition: a raven that encounters a piece of meat hanging from a string will trap the string with one foot and slowly pull the meat up with the other. Ravens also use sticks as tools for grub-hunting. However, flight requires maximum weight efficiency (birds have only one ovary and kidney, for example). This makes a high brain mass to body mass ratio unlikely.

Termites 150:1
I've heard a scientist suggest that one of the massive colonies of millions of termites in Africa might be as intelligent as a 4-year-old. Could be: they've already invented agriculture through fungus farms, language through chemical messages, sophisticated air conditioning, architecture, and division of labor. It's not that much of a stretch to imagine an ant colony learning to cultivate and use fire, a short step away from mastery of chemical energy. However, one wonders about the inherent limits of the hive consciousness...

Frogs 20,000:1
Though they have appendages with digits capable of grasping, frogs and most other amphibeans have little computational brain power.

Snakes 45,000:1
The disadvantage of having no appendages whatsoever makes snakes a dark horse candidate in this race.

Cockroaches 150,000:1
Not a good chance, and thank God for that (even if I'll never be around to see it).
Update: Maybe I should adjust this one to be a little more probable. In the case of a nuclear holocaust, cockroaches would have very little standing in their way.


Betting on larger groups
Generic primate 3:1
With orangutans, gorillas, and bonobos included, this group merits a healthy third of the probability of coming out on top.

Generic mammal 7:3
Adding dolphins, apes, cats, dogs, and rodents together, there's almost a 50% chance you've got a winner.

Generic bird 35:1
In addition to the raven's brain we include the tool-mastery of finches, and the possibility that a flightless bird will eschew its weight efficiency for a more intelligent brain. Furthermore, it is possible that the sudden boom in human intelligence a few hundred thousand years ago was the result of sexual selection--suddenly it was cool to date nerds. Birds are especially prone to sexual selection as a method of picking mates, so it's possible that they could get going down the same road that humans did.

Generic invertebrate 15:1
For a big-paying yet plausible bet, put your money on the invertebrates and hope the cephalopods develop hemoglobin or the hive consciousnesses keep getting smarter.


No successor 5:1
It took a few billion years of life to get humanity up and running. The sun's still got a few billion years of juice remaining, so the odds that another species won't rise to dominance are slim, but certainly a possibility.



Please place your bets by the next milennia. No wagers will be accepted any later.